Blog number 1.  22nd February 2024.   XAU - $2040 / XAG - $22.95



So the week began with a US bank holiday - Presidents Day. The usual quieter trading day in London was extended into Tuesday as the market eagerly awaited Wednesday evening. First up, the FOMC released the minutes of their January meeting. Bit of a non event, their overall rate outlook remained one of caution as the walk back from overly dovish bond markets continues, Waller playing "Bad cop" once again. On the flip side, the pace of QT will be discussed at the March meeting potentially allowing them to be nimble around the ending of the BTFP scheme and the continued drain of the Reverse repo facility. I still remain extremely sceptical that inflation has been tamed.  Next, two hours later it was Nvidia's turn to give the market some short term vol and direction. Watching the price action over the release was  hairy - no doubt serious money won and lost in double quick time! Anyway the overall view remains, AI is taking over the world with Nvidia is best placed to lead the way. Their stock casually closed up 16.4% on Thursday, adding some $277Bln to their market cap - or to put it another way they added a Morgan Stanley and a Goldman Sachs. Crazy. Que a line of companies changing their name to include the initials AI. 

The week for sound money has been a whole lot quieter and benign.

XAU Spot - Narrow range for gold considering the FOMC minutes were released. $2015 - $2040 was the range with the market towards the top end of that going into the close on Friday.

XAG Spot - Range again fairly narrow. $22.60-$23.20 closing out the week near the middle of that.

PM Mining space.

Well, same old same old. A dirty, horrible, tough, unloved business to be in, Mark Twain was right.

WPM US - Wheaton Precious Metals - A streaming company that avoids a lot of the dirty work by financing then taking an offtake from mines going into production. A low cost/low head count business model. They reported FY23 numbers this week. Production numbers were light and reduced all the way out. WPM was sold off leading the stock into a bear market having been trading around $50 at the turn of the year - they look to be closing this week out sub $40! 



Horses.



With the holy grail of jumps racing in the UK just over two weeks away, we head into a quiet period. Connections of any horse entered at Cheltenham face a nervous 17 days+ as the final, crucial and stressful (For horse also) preparations take place. Horses Cheltenham bound will be working after racing at Fairyhouse in Ireland Saturday. The author has been told that there will be some big hitters heading there to take advantage of the unparalleled facilities.



Saturdays action. Two horses catch my eye tomorrow. 

3:00 Kempton - Lump Sum 2/1

Runner up on his last start at Doncaster behind a Nicky Henderson Hot pot that is short in the betting for the Supreme at Cheltenham. He ran green in behind horses before being pulled out and running on nicely for second. I get the feeling the horse might of been handled with other days in mind - hopefully tomorrow as the horse is not entered at Cheltenham.

3:08 Chepstow - Walking on Air 10/3

Watching brief for this one tomorrow. His Dam - Refinement stayed 3m really well but most of her best form was on Good ground so tomorrow's heavy going carrying 12st could be a tall order. The Pertempts Final at the Cheltenham festival is where you could see him peaking.



Have a great weekend all.