FGH Issue 2

Published on 1 March 2024 at 19:30

Blog 2. XAU 2085 / XAG 23.20

 

Crypt Oh.

Grabbing the headlines this week. Digital sound money – namely Bitcoin. Trading above $64K and within touching distance of the all-time high of around $69K. set back in 2021. The main driver for this latest squeeze higher is the recent approval of the Bitcoin ETF’s by the SEC in the US.  Causing a scramble among money managers keen to take up their said allocation in this asset class.

Above we have the combined BTC demand story from the ETF’s 11,211 purchased to satisfy the inflow on 27th Feb, yet only 900 mined in that day. Quite a compelling supply/demand argument that will more than likely require higher prices to flush out sellers – as we are seeing. There is always a big red risk warning attached to this asset class and chasing momentum can cause issues – remember that Bitcoin has had 6 seperate corrections/bear markets of over 80% declines. You need a strong stomach.

 

Stock markets both in Europe and the US spent the week trading sideways. Slight miss on the latest GDP reading and ISM manufacturing in the states was negated by PCE data being inline with the survey – market chatter late Wednesday was pointing towards a hotter print. The wider market has also done a very good job of ignoring the latest update from embattled bank NYCB.  As of time of writing NYCB is down 25% on the day after taking a $2.4bln “Goodwill impairment”, clearing out management and highlighting “Material weaknesses in internal controls”. The last statement does not fill you with confidence that this is the end of the bad news – watch this space.

 

Gold is doing some great work under the radar. Heading for a weekly close above its all time high in EUR and making all time highs in Yuan. The latest push coming after Fed board member Waller stated that he would like the bank to boost its share of short term treasuries – The 2y Yield dropped 10bps soon after providing the tailwind for Gold and Silver. Lots of congested resistance around the $2060 – $2070 cleared for now. A weekly close above $2075 would be nice.

 

 

 

Horses.

 

Saturday 2:50 Kelso.

Under Control. 4/1

She makes the long trek north from Seven Barrows in search of the £60K first prize in the Morebattle Hurdle and also tee up a shot at the £100K bonus should she win at the Cheltenham festival. There she holds 3 entries including the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle and Mares Hurdle – Suggesting that Henderson thinks she is rated a good deal better than 138 (which she races off tomorrow).

 

Last weeks update.

Lump Sum obliged for readers of this blog at a nice 2/1. Never a moments worry.

Walking on Air – Sunk in the heavy ground and was spared a punishing day out by being pulled up. She would be interesting over 3m at the festival on decent ground.

 

Other news.

 

Constitution Hill – As I have no view punting wise in the champion hurdle, I feel sad as a racing enthusiast that he is unlikely to run. The game needs superstars coming back year after year and it looks like being another race for the Irish. If as expected he doesn’t line up.

 

Good luck all.


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